With Flash, which I’ve been using since 4.0, I would’ve had to do a “lot” of Actionscript just to accomplish this. Adobe does not have any competitors so hopefully now they’ll follow MS’s lead.

On paper, Silverlight should be a far superior product to Flash by the end of 2008. But anyone familiar with the stories of how VHS and the PC won out against superior products will know, having a superior product doesn’t make one an automatic winner.

Perhaps I should have limited the scope of my prediction. I was speaking about impact in the RIA space but I realize that I didn’t specifically state that.

It’s true that Microsoft is pushing Silverlight for video streaming at the moment and I’m sure that the Beijing Olympics being streamed via Silverlight will go a very long way to getting adoption for the player. However, I just don’t see how it can have any impact in the RIA space — at least with the current version. It looks like a one trick pony (does video) to me at the moment and doesn’t have the necessary controls, etc. to make it a serious contender for RIAs.

Then again, that’s the thing with predictions. You can always be proved wrong. I’m definitely interested in seeing how this one plays out :)

More details at http://www.davidarno.org/126

Figured you’d disagree ;) heh. I take your points and understand your perspective and I based my opinion from interaction with folks in the Silverlight space (i.e. so it’s only stuff I can comment on based off my own isolated experience.. in that is it accepted truth? i don’t know, I’ll leave that to the history books to decide later). In that I am what I call “Evangelist without Borders” in that the level of interaction world-wide has quite a variety to it. In majority outcomes the point of contention between Flash and Silverlight as being the output wasn’t the split in terms of deciding one or the other. Other factors, cost, capabilities, agency preference etc were all strong motivators in adoption of Silverlight.

It’s not black and white either, in that sure I accept the notion that some customers are savvy about which Runtime to adopt vs. which ones to forget, yet, unless both Adobe & Microsoft agree to publish research around motivators behind RIA plug-in adoption it can get somewhat opinionated (eg Emmys, NBA, Ice Cube etc would of weighed the consequences vs. Likelihood –aka Risk Analysis – and decided an outcome, Microsoft be damned as they have a brand to retain)

Hybrid roles are something in which are becoming somewhat realistic. In that, the downside for us all is that the perception is centred around “You must choose, one or the other” resulting in 100% one way or another (which can be considered a forced fit). Yet the actuality of most Designers & Developers whom I have interviewed have stated “I just wanted a little bit of this and a little bit of that”.

To which I respond with “..well.. why don’t you? what’s stopping you?..” (Right Tool, Right Job, Right Time).

Take for example a Video RIA. At present the cost benefits associated to WMV are significant enough to warrant a ROI study. Given that a lot of video today still is produced/encoded and deployed online in this format, one could agree that Silverlight is a snug fit against this. In that down tool RealOne/Windows Media Player via Web and up tool Silverlight.

Now comes a point of contention. It’s agreed that due to lack of controls and in many respects features found within Flash that are more suited to a agencies skills and capabilities (also there maybe swf’s already produced that they aren’t keen to retire yet in terms of re-usable components) then why not marry the two. Have a Flash centric GUI talking to Coldfusion etc via AMF whilst at the same time keeping existing ROI on Video infrastructure intact. I’m sure we’d love for it to be a 100% Silverlight story as that would complement our brand further, but in reality we aren’t ignorant of the fact that no company is ever really one brand ( we are many under the covers ) so, short term win, long term win.

It’s a win/win for both Adobe & Microsoft in many respects. I state this as I wouldn’t rush to discount the hybrid approach, as I wrote my POC – Harmony for a reason to hint that it’s not all about Red Team vs. Blue Team. Leave that annoyance to opinionated political fighters like me ;) heh

I agree the perception is that we’re “sponsoring” folks to build Silverlight, but that was initial seeding (all companies do it, and whilst folks believe we have big money bins out back, there is a limit to our seeding funds) to ask permission for agencies to consider our technology initially. Today, I receive countless emails from around the world asking for advice around Silverlight development, design and in many cases “help with pitches”. This for me is a strong indicator that the seeding is winding down, and folks are embracing the technology (the marketing about the land rush is over, now it’s stake your claims and be quick about it..)

There is quite a vibrant community with their heads down churning out Silverlight goodness. Now given our EULA forbids you to go live with a Silverlight 1.1 RIA today (due to the fact it’s alpha and it could hurt you more than aid you in the future in terms of customer adoption) this I’d wager is also a contributing factor in why Silverlight is perceived as being “dormant”.

I predict 2008 will change this somewhat, and you’ll see more and more RIA’s based around Silverlight come out of the wood work. I state this as there are millions of Microsoft centric developers around the world whom have discounted Adobe’s products (either due to not knowing the capabilities, deciding it doesn’t fit within their existing investment models and lastly simply because they tried it and disliked it) hammering Microsoft’s doors to “hurry up”. It’s a nice problem to have in all honesty as there is demand that’s for sure, the trick is to now full fill that demand as soon as possible whilst emphasis on carefully as possible.

I’d actually consider 2008 to be the year of RIA in that both Adobe & Microsoft’s war chests are going to be opened up a lot more and this will be an enormous boost for the industry so much so the RIA Designer out there may find themselves in high demand more so.

At any point regarding the Flex vs. Silverlight adoption points, I’d argue “Right Tool, Right Job, Right Time”.

I do however respect your opinions in this space Aral and I’ll be keen to listen to more thoughts around this subject as I don’t have all the answers at all, and I’m eager to prove my theories wrong as then I can look to see ways in which we can improve should you be dead on the money (we’re always keen to cover some blind spots).

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Scott Barnes
RIA Evangelist
Microsoft.

Silverlight 2.0 is simply the (more sensible) name for Silverlight 1.1, which has existed as a beta for a while as it was being developed in parallel with Silverlight 1.0. Yes it does lack a set of controls, but these are due early 2008. It is also .NET based, so people will be able to take existing C#/ VB.NET code and port their apps to Silverlight reasonably easily. And then there is the fact that .NET has started supporting PHP, Python, Ruby etc and so Silverlight will have a broad appeal to many web developers who may be looking to develop RIAs. And finally Silverlight 2.0 will appear on Linux and (possibly more importantly) embedded platforms such as WinCE without the huge license fees the Flash incurs on such platforms.

On paper, Silverlight should be a far superior product to Flash by the end of 2008. But anyone familiar with the stories of how VHS and the PC won out against superior products will know, having a superior product doesn’t make one an automatic winner.

Silverlight closed source. Flex open source.

Apart from that Silverlight looks like a FrontPage rework, we all remember what happened to that product.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this.

I have to disagree with your point that “customers aren’t the ones focusing on which hammer their builders use”. In my experience, customers are very much focused on your choice of hammer when it comes to whether or not a plugin is used and I feel that is as it should be.

Jeremy Keith said it best during his talk at Flash on the Beach last year while comparing AJAX and Flash: There is a continuum of web applications today, ranging from document-centric ones that are better served by plain HTML, to highly interactive, desktop-like applications that are better served by a technology like Flash. In the middle are many shades of gray and opportunities to implement progressive enhancement in the more document-centric applications. Depending on the type of application, the target audience and considerations such as accessibility (which Silverlight currently ignores), the choice of hammer is very important indeed.

Furthermore, I feel that your analogy is flawed. Choice of platform is not the builder choosing her tools, it’s the builder choosing the experience context and that’s a fundamental decision that will shape the experience itself. A choice of tool would be whether the developer uses notepad, Visual Studio or TextMate.

The issue of plugin penetration is also key. Microsoft is not currently publishing penetration statistics for the Silverlight plugin and, based on what I was told at the Silverlight night organized in Brighton this month, they currently do not know when they will start doing so. Without this, how can any client be expected to sign up to the platform?

Also, I don’t see hybrid Flash and Silverlight applications as a real-world use-case (although it makes a fun demo to see them running side-by-side). For the user, it would be a worst-case-scenario where they will be required to have not just one but two plugins installed to get an application working. Heck, we might as well throw a Java applet in the mix too and forget about the user altogether!

Now I know that Microsoft is pursuing an interesting technique in getting development houses to develop with Silverlight by partnering with them and sponsoring development. That’s an intelligent step as it is the creation of useful and fun applications that will drive plugin penetration. But, currently, I don’t see why a development firm that isn’t being sponsored by Microsoft would develop applications with it given that we have no penetration statistics whatsoever and given that there is a mature alternative in the form of Flash and, perhaps more importantly, Flex. IMHO, when making the platform choice for a highly interactive RIA today (with constraints for development time and budget, accessibility, and usability), it would not be in your client’s interests if you chose Silverlight over Flex.

Don’t get me wrong, I am discounting the importance of Silverlight. But in all honesty, I don’t see a proliferation of Silverlight applications on the web in 2008. Perhaps ‘09 and ‘10 once Microsoft starts publishing penetration statistics, the plugin starts gaining traction, and the toolset, libraries, and controls mature.